Halloween 2021 Forecast

The country was in the grips of the second wave of COVID-19 when Halloween 2020 rolled around, resulting in neighborhood grab-and-go trick-or-treat baggies and Zoom costume parties. Although many months away, this year’s holiday will be met with excitement as vaccine optimism takes hold and consumers embrace the opportunity to be together once more.

The “it” item will likely be Halloween-inspired face masks as in-person, socially-distanced celebrations become possible. Masks will take on a whole new meaning, doubling as a safety precaution and costume.

A holiday most enjoyed by kids, Halloween costumes for children will look a little different this year as kids dress up as the everyday heroes, including detectives and mail carriers. Searches for both costumes are exhibiting emerging behavior. Consumers will draw beauty inspiration from the witchcore aesthetic, searches for which are +581% to last year. Visible while wearing a face mask, hair and nail looks are expected to be a focus. Orange hair, green hair, and black nail polish are on the rise.

It may only be April, but it’s clear consumers are already considering how they will celebrate this fall. The term Halloween is currently experiencing extremely high weekly search volume — about 328,500 per week on average. Searches for the term typically peak in the last week of October, as the term garnered an average of 30.5 million searches in the last week of October 2020. Searches this year are expected to surpass that, as consumers’ excitement is amplified by post-pandemic potential.

Read on as we explore the critical shifts in consumer behavior and analyze Halloween 2021 across the kids, beauty, and lifestyle markets.

KIDS

Girls Superhero Costume, +75% to LY

Detective Costume, +13% to LY

Mailman Costume, -12% to LY

This year’s festivities are putting the “we” in Halloween. According to Pinterest, people seek greater connections as costumes for two have grown at a rate of +16x YoY between July 2019 and July 2020. The anticipated return to trick-or-treating is making the idea of dressing up more exciting than ever before. This Halloween, kids costumes, like superheroes, detectives, and mail carriers, which are growing with 70–90% confidence for the next 6 months, celebrate the everyday heroes of lockdown.

Beauty

Halloween Makeup, -86% to LY

Witchcore, +581% to LY

Orange Hair, +13% to LY

Lockdown style is inspiring searches for colorful hair and creative mask ideas. According to Pinterest, searches for mask decorating ideas rose +96% between July 2019 and July 2020. Traditional Halloween makeup looks (-86% to LY) and makeup tutorials (+0% to LY) are no longer a priority. Influenced by the moody witchcore aesthetic (+581% to LY), consumers are looking for beauty looks that experiment with Halloween hues. Orange hair (+13% to LY), green hair (+8% to LY), black lipstick (+6% to LY), and black nail polish(+23% to LY) are gaining popularity. Social buzz for black nail polish is +600% to LY, and the trend is expected to continue growing over the next year with 65% confidence.

HOME

Fall Candle, +114% to LY

Pumpkin Candle,+50% to LY

Halloween Decor, -14% to LY

By the time Halloween rolls around, COVID-19 will likely still play a role in how we celebrate. Per social distancing guidelines, customers are searching for clever ways to trick or treat and enjoy the spooky holiday from the comfort of their own home. For some, that means turning to scary movie nights and planning for an evening of thrills and chills; searches for the term Halloween movie night are up 4x, according to Pinterest. For others, it means getting creative and turning their homes into haunted houses; searches for Halloween home decor are up 4x, according to Pinterest. The term is currently garnering 14K weekly searches.

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